Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, April 20087
Nickel climbs above US$ 30 000 once again
In common with other non-ferrous metals, LME nickel prices fell markedly in mid-March, with the three-month price dropping from US$ 32 000 per tonne in the early part of the month to US$ 29 000 on March 20 before mounting yet another recovery. Ferro-chrome and charge chrome are still scarce owing to power shortages in South Africa; the former has now attained a price of US$ 10 per kg. Rotterdam prices for 304 stainless steel scrap have risen to US$ 2850 per tonne, while 316 scrap has advanced to US$ 4200. Ferritic 430 scrap (17% chromium) has made considerable gains to US$ 600 per tonne while, in late March, 409 scrap (13% chromium) was yielding US$ 520.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, March 20087
Weather hampers Chinese production
Having risen slowly in January, the LME nickel price fell slightly in February and the market remains in contango. Special alloy prices have made strong gains, with ferrovanadium almost doubling in price to attain its highest level in almost three years. Rotterdam prices for 304 stainless steel scrap have increased to USS 2650 per tonne, while 316 scrap has been stable at USS 4050. Ferritic 430 scrap (17% chromium) has advanced to USS 450 per tonne while 409 scrap (13% chromium) has improved to USS 400.
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Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, January/February 20087 (PDF, 493 kB, 2 pages)
Strong start by enigmatic nickel
The enigmatic nickel market remains in contango. Having started 2007 at US$ 26 700 per tonne, the LME three-month price climbed to a record US$ 51 000 in May before sliding back to US$ 26 000 on December 31. The first week of 2008 brought a slight recovery to more than US$ 28 000 per tonne on the back of growing tightness. LME stocks ended 2007 at 48 000 tonnes - a seven-year high and 10 times higher than their August 2007 level. Nickel price increases pushed scrap levels some US$ 200 per tonne higher. Rotterdam prices for 304 and 316 stainless steel scrap have risen to, respectively, US$ 2620 and US$ 4050 per tonne. Ferritic 430 scrap (17% chromium) rose to US$ 430 per tonne while 409 scrap (13% chromium) rose to US$ 380.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, December 2007 (PDF, 722 kB, 3 pages)
Nickel: lower prices due to abundant supply
In the context of the metal’s recent history, nickel prices fell slightly during November - but the market remained in contango. LME stocks continued to increase and surpassed 40 500 tonnes on November 8 - their highest level since the year 2000. Stainless mills are pointing to some resurgence in demand, therefore suggesting that the worst may be over for nickel. Rotterdam prices for 304 and 316 scrap have risen to, respectively, US$ 2470 and US$ 3850 per tonne. Ferritic 430 (17% chromium) has advanced to US$ 370 per tonne while 409 (13% chromium) has climbed to US$ 360 per tonne.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, November 2007 (PDF, 390 kB, 2 pages)
Nickel price recovers but stocks rise
Nickel prices plunged to some US$ 25 000 per tonne in the third quarter but have since settled at around US$ 30 000 to 33 000 for three-month material. Nickel remains in a small contango. Stocks exceeded a seven-year high in reaching 39 000 tonnes in October. European mills are struggling against fast-growing imports from China, South Korea and Taiwan, and have filed anti-dumping petitions with the European Commission. Demand for stainless steel scrap is expected to recover in the first quarter of 2008. Rotterdam prices for 304 and 316 scrap have risen to, respectively, US$ 2650 and US$ 3950 per tonne. Ferritic 430 (17% chromium) has remained at US$ 370 while 409 (13% chromium) also was stable at US$ 360 per tonne.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, October 2007 (PDF, 318 kB, 2 pages)
Nickel prices head north yet again
The nickel market remained in contango for most of September but once again exceeded US$ 30 000 per tonne after having fallen to just above US$ 25 000 at the end of August. LME stocks increased significantly to more than 32 000 tonnes at the end of September. Rotterdam prices for 304 and 316 scrap have risen to, respectively, US$ 2300 and US$ 3600 per tonne. Ferritic 430 (17% chromium) has advanced to US$ 370 per tonne while 409 (13% chromium) has climbed to US$ 360 per tonne.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, September 2007 (PDF, 880 kB, 2 pages)
Contango in nickel market
Nickel’s price slump was arrested at around US$ 25 500 per tonne in mid-August but the market has remained in contango since the early part of last month. LME stocks increased significantly in August to surpass 23 000 tonnes. The price of 304 stainless scrap (18/8) has more than halved since April but the decline has been less severe for 316 material (18/10/2) owing to the comparative firmness of molybdenum. Special alloys have been generally strong although cobalt has continued to suffer. Rotterdam prices for 304 and 316 scrap have fallen to, respectively, US$ 1700 and US$ 2700 per tonne. Ferritic 430 (17% chromium) has fallen to US$ 370 per tonne, while 409 (13% chromium) slid to US$ 350 per tonne.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, July/August 2007 (PDF, 495 kB, 2 pages)
Nickel price crash of historic proportions
Immediately after our market review of June 5 went to press, the nickel price embarked on a fall more dramatic than any witnessed before. The cash price, which had surpassed US$ 54 000 per tonne on May 16, collapsed on a daily basis to arrive at a low of US$ 31 800 per tonne on July 17 - equivalent to a drop of 40%. Also in our previous review, we quoted a 304 scrap price of US$ 3250 per tonne, but nobody seems to expect values to return to such levels in the forthcoming months or even years. Rotterdam prices for 304 and 316 scrap have fallen to, respectively, US$ 1800 and US$ 2900 per tonne. Ferritic 430 (17% chromium) has slid to US$ 380 per tonne while 409 (13% chromium) has dropped below US$ 360 per tonne.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, June 2007 (PDF, 438 kB, 2 pages)
Nickel down, backwardation up
After having reached US$ 54 000 per tonne on May 16, nickel prices returned to their earlier cash level of around US$ 50 000. Benchmark 304 stainless steel scrap prices fell some US$ 700 per tonne - or 18% - in late May while 316 prices dipped 9%. The rapidly-rising nickel cash to three months backwardation is creating reluctance among stainless steel brokers, stockholders and scrap consuming mills to keep stocks and to buy scrap. Rotterdam prices for 304 and 316 scrap have fallen to, respectively, US$ 3250 and US$ 5100 per tonne. Ferritic 430 (17% chromium) has slid to US$ 400 per tonne while 409 (13% chromium) has dropped below the US$ 400 per tonne threshold to US$ 390.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, May 2007 (PDF, 482 kB, 2 pages)
LME nickel tops US$ 50 000 a tonne
Only the greatest optimist would last year have predicted an LME nickel price breaking through the US$ 50 000 per tonne barrier. This momentous event occurred on March 19 when the cash price went as high as US$ 50 345 per tonne for a short while before dropping back. The backwardation, which stood at US$ 1550 in early March, increased to US$ 1750 over the ensuing month while LME stocks fell once again below 5000 tonnes. On April 5, however, the three-month nickel price reached a record high US$ 50 000 per tonne - although it fell considerably during that same day. Stainless steel scrap prices have also reached record highs: Rotterdam prices for 304 and 316 scrap are at, respectively, US$ 3950 and US$ 5590 per tonne, while ferritic 430 (17% chromium) is standing at US$ 420 per tonne and 409 (13% chromium) at US$ 410.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, April 2007 (PDF, 446 kB, 2 pages)
Nickel keeps the analysts guessing
Will nickel continue to outpace all the other non-ferrous metals? Or are we in line for a sudden price collapse? Nearly every week produces another all-time high, with the result that the nickel price is currently almost three times above its level of a year ago. In the third week of March, Rotterdam prices for 304 and 316 scrap are standing at, respectively, US$ 3950 and US$ 5300 per tonne. Meanwhile, ferritic 430 (17% chromium) was stable at US$ 420 and 409 (13% chromium) at US$ 330. Special alloy prices have also recorded spectacular increases in the first quarter of 2007 thanks to a shortage of material coupled with new Chinese export taxes.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, March 2007 (PDF, 1088 kB, 2 pages)
Nickel tops US$ 40 000 mark
With LME nickel stocks having fallen to an alarmingly low level of just below 4000 tonnes, values have increased on an almost daily basis during February. All previous highs were shattered as LME cash nickel rampaged to US$ 41 500 per tonne; three-month metal also achieved a record US$ 40 200 per tonne on February 22. In response, stainless steel mills are seeking as much 18/8 scrap as possible but traders simply cannot obtain enough material to meet their needs. In late February, Rotterdam prices for 304 and 316 scrap are standing at, respectively, US$ 3400 and US$ 4700 per tonne. Meanwhile, ferritic 430 (17% chromium) has remained stable at US$ 420 and 409 (13% chromium) at US$ 330 per tonne.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, January-February 2007 (PDF, 476 kB, 2 pages)
Nickel surprises with renewed price progress
Nickel was the biggest winner among the non-ferrous metals last year with a price gain of 135%. It peaked at US$ 35 452.50 in cash terms and at US$ 34 692.50 for three-month material. By comparison, the lowest prices achieved last year were, respectively, US$ 13 502.50 and US$ 13 640. Experts predicted late last year that profit-taking and panic selling were inevitable before mid-January but, in the event, the nickel price has not collapsed. On the contrary, LME three-month nickel rallied to another all-time high of US$ 36 000 per tonne on January 17. It’s small wonder that the nickel market is described as very nervous. Late January, Rotterdam prices for 304 and 316 scrap stood at, respectively, US$ 3180 and US$ 4350 per tonne, while ferritic 430 (17% chromium) rose to US$ 420 and 409 (13% chromium) to US$ 340.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, December 2006 (PDF, 418 kB, 2 pages)
Stainless scrap remains scarce
Stainless steel scrap availability has been excessively tight throughout most of this year. Various mills with well-filled order books have again been forced to buy primary nickel units because of an inability to purchase enough merchant scrap or to produce sufficient secondary material in-house. LME nickel stocks fell below 6500 tonnes again at the end of November while the metal’s price returned to its historical high of US$ 34 833 per tonne for spot material on October 23 to around US$ 34 700 for cash nickel. Price increases among the special alloys reflect China’s sudden decision to raise export taxes on most ferrous alloys. Rotterdam prices for 304 and 316 scrap stand at, respectively, US$ 2920 and US$ 4100 per tonne, while ferritic 430 (17% chromium) rose to US$ 400 and 409 (13% chromium) to US$ 330.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, November 2006 (PDF, 520 kB, 2 pages)
Nickel - where will the peak come?
At the end of October, the cash price of nickel was nearing another all-time high of US$ 35 000 per tonne after having once attained US$ 34 750 earlier in the year. The global stainless steel industry’s full order books are expected to continue to fuel demand for nickel over the next few months. In early November, LME nickel stocks had fallen to around 5000 tonnes. Rotterdam prices for 304 and 316 scrap were standing at, respectively, US$ 2760 and US$ 3950 per tonne, while ferritic 430 (17% chromium) was stable at to US$ 390, as was 409 (13% chromium) at US$ 320.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, October 2006 (PDF, 811 kB, 2 pages)
Yo-yoing nickel
The nickel market seems to have lost direction. In contrast to the other base metals, which showed price increases during September, LME three-month nickel remained rather stable. Late August, the metal stood at around US$ 29 000 per tonne (with a backwardation of nearly US$ 4000) while at the end of September nickel yielded US$ 29 200 (with a ‘back’ of US$ 2000). LME inventories remain alarmingly low at 5150 tonnes on 30 September, which represents only a few days’ consumption. The continuing tightness of stainless steel scrap has forced a number of melting shops to use primary metal instead. Rotterdam prices for 304 and 316 scrap stood at, respectively, US$ 2650 and US$ 3850 per tonne, while ferritic 430 (17% chromium) fell slightly to US$ 390 and 409 (13% chromium) to US$ 320.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, September 2006 (PDF, 472 kB, 2 pages)
Nickel continues record-breaking run
LME nickel is nearing US$ 34 000 per tonne while the three-month price is around US$ 28 600. Last month, the backwardation became so alarming that the LME board felt obliged to intervene and curb the daily backwardation rate. The nickel inventory is still extremely low, especially as the current 6000 tonnes represents a theoretical stock and the majority of this tonnage is not freely available. Stainless steel producers are desperately trying to snatch every last piece of scrap but there has been barely any increase in available tonnage. By early September, Rotterdam prices for 304 and 316 scrap have risen to, respectively, US$ 2700 and US$ 3650 per tonne. Ferritic 430 (17% chromium) and 409 (13% chromium) scrap prices have reached, respectively, US$ 400 and US$ 330.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, July-August 2006 (PDF, 471 kB, 2 pages)
Stainless in danger from high nickel prices
The three-month LME nickel quotation reached an all-time high of US$ 26 755 per tonne on July 17, or nearly twice its level of US$ 13 640 last May. The backwardation of US$ 2651 was also a record; at the turn of the year, the LME still showed a contango of US$ 100 per tonne. LME stocks are still in free-fall and were just above 40 000 tonnes at the end of July. Indeed, inventories are currently blow the historical low of 4926 tonnes recorded on May 13 last year. Nickel and stainless scrap are still in short supply and mills are fighting to obtain ever smaller parcels. By early August, the Rotterdam prices for 304 and 316 scrap have risen to, respectively, US$ 2300 and US$ 3300 per tonne. Ferritic 430 and 409 prices have reached US$ 350 and US$ 300 respectively.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, June 2006 (PDF, 721 kB, 2 pages)
Nickel market rocked by price explosion
Having surged above US$ 23 000 per tonne during May, nickel prices were back below US$ 22 000 in early June. However, as any nickel and stainless steel expert will tell you, this still represents an incredibly high level. Rather than looking to build stocks, many scrap buyers are restricting themselves to volumes that will satisfy only their immediate production needs.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, May 2006 (PDF, 561 kB, 2 page)
Nickel touches the magical US$ 20 000 mark
On April 25, LME nickel achieved an all-time high of US$ 20 000 per tonne, or US$ 9.07 per lb. The price gained more than 10% in the third week of April and some 27% during the month as a whole thanks mainly to rising stainless steel production, declining stocks and the threat of supply disruption. Fe-scrap prices also remain at a high level. By early May, the Rotterdam 304 and 316 scrap prices have risen to, respectively, US$ 1860-1880 and US$ 2500 per tonne. Ferritic 430 and 409 prices have remained stable at in turn, US$ 300 and US$ 260 respectively.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, April 2006 (PDF, 276 kB, 2 pages)
Stainless steel market re-discovers its momentum
After exceeding US$ 15 000 once again in the early days of March, LME nickel subsequently settled just below this level while stocks remained at the comparatively high level of 32 600 tonnes. However, stainless scrap values increased slightly, thanks in part to improved chromium and steel scrap prices and to the lower rate of the US dollar in relation to the Euro and other currencies. Noble alloy markets have moved unexpectedly lower during the course of the past month. By the third week of March, the Rotterdam 304 scrap price stood at US$ 1500-1510 per tonne and 316 at US$ 2250. Both Ferritic 430 and Ferritic 409 prices remained stable at US$ 300 and US$ 260 per tonne respectively.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, March 2006 (PDF, 250kB, 1 page)
Sound start and good prospects for 2006
LME nickel prices have remained comparatively firm at the start of this year and are hovering around US$ 15 000 per tonne. With Chinese production still on the increase and the country’s consumption at well over 5 million tonnes per annum, healthy nickel demand seems to be assured for 2006. However, noble metals such as ferro-vanadium, ferro-molybdenum, molybdenum and cobalt seem to be following a different path. In the third week of February, the Rotterdam 304 scrap price was standing at US$ 1480 per tonne, while the 316 price was at US$ 2230. The ferritic 430, 17% Chrome steel scrap, price moved up to US$ 300 per tonne, while 409, 13% FeCr, was around US$ 260.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, January/February 2006 (PDF, 236kB, 2 pages)
Accelerating growth in nickel stocks
Over the course of the last year, the nickel price has yo-yoed wildly between US$ 17 700 and US$ 11 000. The year ended with an LME three-month price of US$ 13 300 - not too far from the 2005 average of around US$ 14 750. Nickel stocks in LME warehouses increased steadily over a six-month period last year, but the trend accelerated in December with the inventory climbing more than 40% during the course of the month to over 33 000 tonnes. The erosion of stainless scrap prices appears to have come to a halt; by the second week of January, the Rotterdam 304 scrap price was standing at US$ 1350 per tonne while the 316 price was recently standing at US$ 2100. The ferritic 430 price remained at around US$ 280 per tonne while 409 was nearer US$ 240.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, December 2005 (PDF, 217kB, 2 pages)
No improvement in final quarter
At the end of November, the LME three-month nickel price was hovering around US$ 13 000 per tonne. However, in proportional terms, stainless steel scrap prices have lagged behind nickel, their main component in value. Closures and production cuts among major US and EU mills have reduced demand for scrap and only China is a willing buyer of 304 (18/8) material. By the end of November, the Rotterdam 304 scrap price was standing at US$ 1180 per tonne while the 316 price had declined to US$ 1950. The ferritic 430 price remained at around US$ 290 per tonne while 409 was nearer US$ 250.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, November 2005 (PDF, 299kB, 2 pages)
No improvement in the final quarter
With nickel prices hovering around the US$ 12 000 mark, stainless scrap prices remain depressed and offers of scrap have been abundant. UK stainless steel scrap exports will have to increase markedly when Outokumpu shuts down a large part of its UK operation; melting output will be reduced by some 200 000 tonnes per annum. By early November, the Rotterdam 304 scrap was standing at US$ 1100 per tonne while the 316 price had declined to US$ 1900. The ferritic 430 price was around US$ 300 per tonne while 409 was nearer US$ 260.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, October 2005 (PDF, 308 kB, 2 pages)
Stainless scrap prices remain depressed
Producer over-stocking and reduced global demand for stainless steel adversely affected scrap purchasing patterns in the third quarter, especially in Europe. Stainless steel scrap prices have duly fallen, whereas values of most of the noble alloys have remained broadly unchanged over recent weeks.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, September 2005 (PDF, 238 kB, 2 pages)
Contrasting fortunes
‘Dull but not dead’ is how one leading producer described the stainless steel market this month. Falling prices have impacted on the scrap sector although merchants have been reluctant to part with their stocks at these low levels.However, early September scrap prices were already up again by US$ 100 per tonne when compared to August. In contrast, special alloy prices have risen during August.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, July/August 2005 (PDF, 232 kB, 2 pages)
Falling prices, falling stocks
Generally weak market conditions have dented prices of stainless steel scrap and special alloys. Fears of over-production in China have adversely affected the cold rolled coil market although producers in that country have now undertaken to curtail output.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, June 2005 (PDF, 159 kB, 2 pages)
Scrap prices heading south
The nickel price stabilised during the latter half of May at around US$ 16000 per tonne but concern surrounded whether it will remain at this high level - especially as the US dollar is gaining strength against the Euro. Scrap prices seem to have anticipated this shift and were 'heading south' by early June.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, May 2005 (PDF, 239 kB, 2 pages)
Nickel price continues to ebb and flow
The nickel price has been rather volatile this year, falling below US$ 15 000 before climbing to nearly US$ 16 000 again at the end of April. Of course, this ebb and flow has also created unstable stainless steel scrap prices. Too many factors are influencing the nickel price to make it possible to forecast the longer-term market direction. The average nickel price last year was US$ 6.28 per lb.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, April 2005 (PDF, 249 kB, 2 pages)
Nickel climbs close to record heights
Nickel is still in deficit due to a strong demand that continues to be driven by the Chinese. The price of the metal was exceeding US$ 16 000 at the end of February; stainless steel prices have also risen, thereby having a positive impact on stainless scrap values. Most of the other alloys have followed this bullish trend, which is expected to persist into the second quarter.
Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, March 2005 (PDF, 174 kB, 1 page)
Nickel breaks through the US$ 15 000 barrier
In the wake of rapidly rising nickel prices this year, demand for stainless steel scrap has also increased apace. China is seen as the driving force behind the growth in demand for both stainless and nickel. However, the fashionable 200 series of stainless steel seems to be losing some ground.
Market analysis nickel and stainless, January 2005 (PDF, 190kB, 1 page)
Surging stainless surcharges
The words 'volatile' and 'nickel' forged an almost inextricable link during the course of 2004, and most analysts expect the metal's roller-coaster rise to continue in 2005. Responding to higher steel prices, many stainless steel producers have introduced substantially higher scrap surcharges.
Market analysis nickel and stainless, December 2004 (PDF, 177kB, 1 page)
Nickel and stainless on the increase again
With LME nickel once more exceeding US$ 14 000 and chrome still at an exceptionally high level, stainless steel prices have held their ground despite a recent steep fall in ferrous scrap prices. In early December, the 304, 18/8 stainless steel scrap price in Rotterdam stood at US$ 1525 per tonne and 316 scrap at US$ 2135. Chrome steel scrap 17% was yielding US$ 285 and 13% scrap was trading at US$ 245 per tonne.
Market analysis nickel and stainless, November 2004 (PDF, 217kB, 1 page)
Volatility continues to dominate the nickel scene
Nickel remains volatile and, having recently sunk below the US$ 13 000 mark on the LME, the price started to rise again in early November and exceeded US$ 14 000 in the second week of the month. Of course, stainless steel scrap prices reacted immediately and the larger traders are now paying US$ 1475 for 304 grade and US$ 2100 for 316. Chrome steel scrap has also been on the increase, with 17% chrome steel scrap reaching US$ 280 and 13% chrome steel US$ 240.
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