Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, April 2008
Power issues affect aluminium market
March proved to be another month of significant price movements in the main non-ferrous metals markets, with aluminium reaching its highest level for almost two years and tin trading well above the US$ 20 000 per tonne mark. On March 28, closing LME cash prices were as follows (per tonne): aluminium US$ 2941; copper US$ 8535; lead US$ 2872; zinc US$ 2325; and tin US$ 20 595.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, March 2008
Aluminium scales nine-month peak
Power, transport and severe weather issues in China have intensified supply concerns surrounding some of the leading non-ferrous metals. Aluminium in particular has recorded significant price gains over recent weeks. On February 25, closing LME cash prices were as follows (per tonne): aluminium USS 2857; copper USS 8246; lead USS 3265; and zinc USS 2465.
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Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, January/February 2008 (PDF, 684 kB, 3 pages)
2008 begins on a firm footing
In response to non-ferrous metal price hikes during the early part of 2008, many mill buyers have opted to order relatively small volumes and await further developments before increasing their commitments. On January 17, closing LME cash prices were as follows (per tonne): aluminium US$ 2412; copper US$ 7121; lead US$ 2609.50; and zinc US$ 2270.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, December 2007 (PDF, 571 kB, 2 pages)
Zinc prices suffer sharp reverse
In Europe, prices have remained largely stable over recent weeks against a backdrop of strong demand from the metals processing industries. Scrap prices have also held relatively steady, with availability being more than sufficient in some instances. From China comes speculation that the 5% rebate on zinc exports may be withdrawn early next year. Meanwhile, analysts around the globe are continuing to cast nervous glances towards the USA, although preliminary figures for the third quarter indicate an annual GDP growth rate of 4.9%. With the obvious exception of the US housing sector, it would appear that large parts of the economy remain strong.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, November 2007 (PDF, 396 kB, 3 pages)
Set fair for the remainder of 2007
During the recent LME Week gathering in London, analysts told Europe’s metals traders to expect firm prices for the rest of this year. Meanwhile, there is mounting concern that the EU’s waste and REACH chemicals legislation could damage the industry’s competitiveness in relation to its counterparts in Asia and North America.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, October 2007 (PDF, 681 kB, 3 pages)
Lead - leading the way on price
Towards the end of September, activity levels within the European metals markets began to recover from a rather quiet summer period. However, traders are still describing demand for scrap as slow - not least because many processors appear well-stocked. The last four weeks have also witnessed fresh high for the price of lead.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, September 2007 (PDF, 1349 kB, 3 pages)
Markets rocked by wider worries
After the turmoil which engulfed the financial and commodity markets during August, the month ended with somewhat steadier conditions - although there was lingering concern about the sub prime lending situation in the USA. The bulls in the non-ferrous sector point out that China is continuing to buy large volumes of metal and that the crisis in the financial markets has not altered the fundamentals which have been underpinning key metal markets for some considerable time.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, July/August 2007 (PDF, 593 kB, 3 pages)
Lead sets pace among non-ferrous metals
In Europe, non-ferrous metals prices remained volatile but at high levels during the first half of the summer. Europe’s primary metals producers are reporting full order books but sufficient scrap appears to be available to meet their processing needs. The Chinese non-ferrous sector has been digesting changes to tax rebates and import taxes, while the US market has followed the seasonal norm in adopting a quieter tone. The top performing non-ferrous metal over recent weeks has been lead, with prices responding to a significant drop in warehouse stocks.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, June 2007 (PDF, 609 kB, 3 pages)
Playing the wait-and-see game
Across most of the Western World, supply of scrap remains sufficient to satisfy the needs of the market. However, with prices still at historically high levels for a number of the mainstream non-ferrous metals, many processors are electing to spend much of their time on the sidelines and to purchase only enough scrap to meet their near-term production needs.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, May 2007 (PDF, 567 kB, 3 pages)
Copper bounces back
The continuing upswing in non-ferrous metal markets has led to an increasingly short supply of both primary and secondary metals across Europe. In North America, meanwhile, there is growing concern that higher prices for some non-ferrous metals are not supported by the fundamentals. Of particular note, copper has mounted a substantial recovery after its recent dip in price.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, April 2007 (PDF, 541 kB, 3 pages)
Markets boosted by Chinese import data
LME prices have moved higher over recent weeks in response to tight supply and relatively strong demand for primary metals. Scrap has also attracted healthy prices and, in most but not all instances, there is sufficient material available to meet market needs. Meanwhile, buyers in China have returned to the international copper market ahead of the traditional boom season for domestic consumption. Import statistics released by the Asian giant have proved a significant fillip for the base metal markets.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, March 2007 (PDF, 586 kB, 3 pages)
Weather impacts North American market
Europe’s aluminium processors are enjoying healthy demand for their products but remain concerned about EU energy and customs policies. Meanwhile, following a relatively mild start to 2007 in North America, the lower temperatures recorded in more recent weeks have hindered both incoming and outgoing movements of scrap. Dealers’ stocks of certain grades of copper scrap are said to be significantly below the norm for this time of year.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, January-February 2007 (PDF, 584 kB, 3 pages)
Market sustains long-heralded correction
The New Year began on a volatile note, with large swings in the prices of a number of the leading non-ferrous metals. Nevertheless, prices remain largely at historically elevated levels. Many traders argue that the recent price drops represented merely a long-awaited correction and that the 2007 outlook for base metals remained largely healthy. Latest data also suggest generally positive economic prospects in some of the key consuming nations: in the USA, for example, industrial production climbed 0.4% in December to easily outstrip predicted growth of 0.1%. The country’s trade deficit in November was the lowest since July 2005, while the deficit with China dipped US$ 1.5 billion.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, December 2006 (PDF, 678 kB, 3 pages)
Copper loses some of its shine
Metal prices have dropped in recent weeks but remain at very high levels. In Europe, positive economic developments have ensured that order books remain well-filled. At the same time, buyers have encountered few problems in sourcing sufficient material. Scrap purchasers in Asia have been placing larger orders of late although the volumes involved are still much lower than earlier in the year.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, November 2006 (PDF, 733 kB, 3 pages)
Sufficient scrap to meet consumer demand
Over the last month, European metal traders’ stocks have been at relatively high levels and more than enough scrap is to be found on the market. Asian buyers have continued to order only limited volumes, although experts believe this situation will change in the coming weeks. In North America, meanwhile, scrap merchants have noted a slight fall in activity levels as well as increased pressure on margins. In general, consumers appear to have sufficient scrap available to meet their needs.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, October 2006 (PDF, 670 kB, 3 pages)
Demand comes off the boil
Stocks held by Europe’s metal traders are considerably higher than at the beginning of the year owing to a combination of high prices and more limited purchasing by Asian buyers. As a result, metals supply in Europe is currently deemed to be more than sufficient. Traders are generally satisfied with market conditions but are concerned about the mounting costs of financing, credit and theft insurance. For the fourth quarter, there are widespread expectations of a pick-up in Chinese demand.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, September 2006 (PDF, 822 kB, 3 pages)
Production issues help to boost copper
The upward trend in the European metal markets continued during August, fuelling a widespread expectation that prices of raw materials - including metals - will never again return to the levels of past years. In the USA, the metals sector is likely to feel the effects of some disappointing economic indicators: gross domestic product increased at a slower-than-anticipated seasonally adjusted rate of 2.5% in the second quarter; while business spending followed up a first-quarter surge of 13.7% with an altogether more sobering increase of 2.7% in the April-June period.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, July-August 2006 (PDF, 666 kB, 3 pages)
High prices increase substitution risk
In general, European metal prices have remained at high levels despite a certain degree of fluctuation. As a result, the metals industry has been forced to contend with increased financing costs and higher credit insurance rates. If such high price levels persist, there is a fear that processors will increasingly seek out substitute materials. In the USA, meanwhile, eyebrows have been raised at the very wide scrap spreads.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, June 2006 (PDF, 604 kB, 3 pages)
Bull run heads into the summer months
The non-ferrous markets have largely maintained their strong performance of recent months. Demand from European metal processors has remained excellent although many consumers have been buying to satisfy immediate production needs rather than to build stocks. In China, the volatility of other base metals has persuaded many traders to focus more of their attention on aluminium. In the US market, meanwhile, sentiment has been dented by growing fears of inflation and by recent signs of a stronger dollar.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, May 2006 (PDF, 428 kB, 3 pages)
Records fall as prices continue to rise
Some of the mainstream non-ferrous metals have broken new ground in recent weeks, while scrap prices have been rising in line with LME trends. In Asia, the relentless surge in copper prices has been greeted with a mixture of panic and enthusiasm, depending on which side of the sales equation you happen to be sitting.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, April 2006 (PDF, 489 kB, 3 pages)
Copper: a case of caution ahead of correction?
Despite falls in official LME levels, non-ferrous prices remained on a high during the course of February and March. Dealers and consumers are somewhat baffled by the volatility afflicting the copper market; demand appears to be healthy but many feel a correction is imminent, leading them to adopt a more cautious approach to their trading activities.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, March 2006 (PDF, 443 kB, 3 pages)
Copper continues to confound the experts
LME levels have continued to rise over recent weeks, with analysts attributing the increases to, variously, a worldwide shortage of raw materials, speculative activity by investment funds, and the unquenchable thirst for metals among the emerging economies of Asia and Eastern Europe. Indeed, the high prices of copper and zinc have prompted some consumers to consider alternative options.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, January/February 2006 (PDF, 254 kB, 3 pages)
Robust start to 2006
Economic growth both locally and in distant export markets is expected to benefit Europe’s metals industry over the coming months. Despite predictions that non-ferrous prices would fall ahead of the Christmas holiday season, the market remained resolutely firm. Meanwhile, China’s aluminium producers are battling against the twin forces of soaring energy costs and sky-rocketing alumina prices.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, December 2005 (PDF, 259 kB, 3 pages)
Nervousness enters the copper market
The mood within the European metal markets improved considerably in November, with processors seemingly enjoying well-filled order books and some grades of scrap in short supply. In Asia, meanwhile, intriguing developments within the copper market have helped to create a sense of nervousness, leading to predictions of a sudden and severe price correction.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, November 2005 (PDF, 288 kB, 3 pages)
Copper surges to new heights
The upward trend in metal prices has continued to be driven by strong orders and by hedge fund activity, with LME spot prices for copper hurtling past the US$ 4000 milestone. Asia has once again proved to be the engine room of demand for a range of non-ferrous metals, while consumption in Europe has been somewhat less unspectacular. In North America, meanwhile, the shortage of both refined copper and copper scrap offers a stark contrast to the country’s plentiful supply of aluminium scrap. The two major hurricanes of recent months have created significant transportation issues in the USA.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, October 2005 (PDF, 328 kB, 3 pages)
Copper remains red hot
The summer may have run its course but the heat has not left the metal markets, with most of the base metal prices remaining at high levels; in particular, copper has showed little sign of losing its upward momentum. Meanwhile, Hurricane Katrina has served to create an element of uncertainty and volatility in the marketplace. In Europe, many buyers have been reluctant to commit to any tonnages for which there is not an immediate production requirement. In North America, meanwhile, some sellers have been holding on to their copper scrap in the hope of higher prices still.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, September 2005 (PDF, 259 kB, 3 pages)
High prices impact on buying patterns
In Europe, the metal markets have continued to mirror the general raw materials boom such that processors have ordered only against their immediate needs. The summer lull in North America has been punctuated by the industrial dispute at Teck Cominco’s lead and zinc smelter in British Columbia, and by news that the Chinese have re-opened licence application procedures for prospective overseas suppliers of scrap and other recyclables.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, July/August 2005 (PDF, 291 kB, 3 pages)
Energy prices take their toll
The raw material boom continues to buoy the non-ferrous metal markets, with demand from Asia remaining very high. By contrast, Europe’s processors are ordering solely against short-term needs and are declining to build up their inventories. Exporters have been cheered by confirmation from the Chinese government that it was removing the 5% export duty on secondary aluminium. Meanwhile, latest statistics confirm a substantial increase in US aluminium scrap exports in the January-May period of this year, with China the leading recipient.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, June 2005 (PDF, 169 kB, 3 pages)
Euro hit by EU constitution votes
Metal prices dipped slightly in May but remain at high levels. Also weaker is the value of the Euro in relation to the US dollar following the recent convincing votes against the EU constitution in both France and The Netherlands - a development which could well have an impact on the metals trade in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Chinese and Far Eastern interest in copper scrap picked up considerably in mid May following the labour week and golden week holidays.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, May 2005 (PDF, 182 kB, 3 pages)
Non-ferrous sector still finds reason for optimism
A survey conducted by the German metal traders association VDM has found that 70% of its members expect demand to stay at current levels or to weaken slightly, while around 40% believe prices will rise over the next six months. Of relevance to the metal markets in general, US economic growth in the first quarter indicated an annual rate of 3.1% compared to 3.8% in the fourth quarter of last year. Although this was the lowest rate registered since the 1.9% seen in the first quarter of 2003, US delegates to the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries’ recent annual convention were far from down-hearted.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, April 2005 (PDF, 378 kB, 3 pages)
Aluminium, copper and zinc scale fresh heights
Europe‘s metal markets are finally on the move once again and, as a result, prices have firmed considerably. This is somewhat surprising since many of the major European economies are still not feeling the benefits of a largely positive global economic climate. In the Asia & Pacific Rim, high LME prices and softer demand have led to a considerable reduction in premiums for high-grade copper scrap. In North America, meanwhile, demand for copper has been reasonable but perhaps a little short of expectations.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, March 2005 (PDF, 248 kB, 3 pages)
Margins still a worry for processors
European mills are reporting good demand for new metal but processors are continuing to complain about margins and are increasingly considering moving their production to Eastern European countries. In Asia, meanwhile, last year’s general tightness in the metals sector has created expectations of further market improvements following the Chinese New Year holidays.
Market analysis Non-Ferrous, January 2005 (PDF, 299kB, 3 pages)
Slow start but cautious optimism for 2005
2004 was generally considered to be a good year by Europe's non-ferrous scrap industry, while 2005 is being viewed with moderate optimism. Despite a generally slow start to the new year, Chinese consumers are more bullish about first-quarter prospects for copper in particular. Meanwhile, the US dollar came under pressure early in 2005, partly in response to confirmation of last November's larger-than-expected US trade deficit.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, December 2004 (PDF, 344 kB, 3 pages)
A year of supply tightness and price volatility
This year’s dramatic fall in LME stocks illustrates the strength of global demand for most non-ferrous metals. However, metal processors’ margins have become tighter in many instances because of the lack of scope to pass on higher raw material costs to their customers. In some parts of the world, secondary smelters have struggled to secure sufficient raw material to meet their production requirements.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, November 2004 (PDF, 254 kB, 3 pages)
Bullish sentiment survives recent volatility
LME metals tumbled in mid-October from the high levels achieved in the preceding weeks but analysts believe this to be merely a reaction to overheated pricing. In Asia, exports to India have been complicated by major port congestion problems and by the requirement for pre- and post-shipment inspection. And if you hadn’t heard, the USA has just had a Presidential Election although its initial impact on the base metal markets appeared to be slight.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, October 2004 (PDF, 163 kB, 3 pages)
Oil price fuels market jitters
Post-summer demand has been disappointing in Europe, with processors continuing to order only against short-term needs given the very high prices of primary and secondary materials. In the Asia Pacific region, sharply increasing commodity and oil prices are creating nervousness in the markets and threatening the stable economic growth enjoyed so far this year. Some turbulence is also reported from North America, partly in response to the looming US Presidential Election as well as to rising oil prices and interest rates.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, September 2004 (PDF, 161 kB, 3 pages)
Nickel takes another tumble
Market experts in Europe have been blaming patchy demand from the metal processing industries on the impact of summer holidays and to short-term ordering in the hope of a fall in prices. Meanwhile, copper markets in Asia have fallen in response to lower LME levels and are expected to remain volatile in the near term due to oil price and currency fluctuations.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, July/August 2004 (PDF, 311 kB, 5 pages)
Positive sentiment survives price fall
Europe’s metal markets are taking advantage of increasingly positive economic forecasts and attractive fundamentals, although the summer has brought about a traditional lull in metal trading activity on both sides of the Atlantic. Meanwhile, market attitudes in Asia have also become more optimistic, not least because the electronic industries and sections of the metal industry are projecting good profits.
Market analysis: Non-Ferrous, June 2004 (PDF, 385 kB, 3 pages)
Positive sentiment survives price fall
The steep drop in metals prices, which arrived amid fears of slowing economic growth and tighter credit availability in China, drove Asian consumers and sellers into a state of panic during May. However, the latter part of the month and the early days of June saw something of an improvement in sentiment and leading analysts agree that non-ferrous market fundamentals remain generally sound.
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