Market analysis: Paper
Market analysis: Paper, April 2008
Market dogged by shipment problems
Recent weeks have witnessed a continuation of the container availability problems in the USA. Demand from Asia has remained strong, particularly for the bulk and middle grades of recovered paper. However, Asian buyers appear to be offering more resistance to price increases owing to difficulties in raising their own finished product prices. In Europe, generation levels have been low across almost all grades of recovered paper.
Market analysis: Paper, March 2008
US exporters hit by dearth of containers
The recent Chinese New Year celebrations barely impacted on surging demand for many grades of recovered paper. Consumers in Europe felt impelled to increase their prices in February while exporters in many parts of North America have been struggling to overcome a shortage of vessels and containers.
For previous market analyses: click on the title to download the market analysis in PDF format.
Market analysis: Paper, January/February 2008 (PDF, 478 kB, 2 pages)
Early price progress in 2008
Partly as a result of deteriorating weather conditions in some key collection regions, volumes of recovered paper entering processors’ yards have slowed in the early weeks of the year. Meanwhile, demand has remained relatively robust and shipping costs have increased once again. The combination of these factors has meant that recovered paper prices have started the year on a firm note.
Market analysis: Paper, December 2007 (PDF, 559 kB, 2 pages)
Freight issues continue to dominate
With harsh winter weather yet to bite in North America, generation of recovered paper has remained fairly robust. However, container shortages are affecting exporters in certain parts of the USA. Many mills in Europe have continued to request decent volumes of recovered paper while their counterparts in Asia are well stocked and appear to be waiting for further price falls.
Market analysis: Paper, November 2007 (PDF, 390 kB, 2 pages)
Freight pressure creates ripple effect
Once again, freight rates between Europe and Asia have been the dominant factor in the recovered paper market. Conference shipping lines have declined to negotiate on the price hikes foreshadowed in our previous market report, with the result that volumes heading eastwards have been reduced. Meanwhile, shipping rates from North America to Europe have leapt US$ 200-300 per container in some instances.
Market analysis: Paper, October 2007 (PDF, 641 kB, 2 pages)
Freight fright for Europe’s exporters
Just when the recovered paper markets seemed relatively set fair for the autumn, Europe’s exporters have been shell-shocked by the threat of major freight rate increases for shipments to Asia. The scale of these increases remained a source of debate at the time of writing and many buyers in Asia have declined to place orders so as to await more concrete news.
Market analysis: Paper, September 2007 (PDF, 866 kB, 2 pages)
Summer-time generation gap
Over the last month, merchant processors and exporters have been squeezed by the now-familiar double-whammy: strong demand but heavily restricted supply owing to the summer holiday season. September and the final quarter traditionally yield strong demand for recovered paper, thus fuelling hopes of recovered fibre price increases in the coming weeks.
Market analysis: Paper, July/August 2007 (PDF, 497 kB, 2 pages)
Dearth of stocks in European yards
The traditional slow-down in recovered paper generation during the summer months is proving particularly worrisome this year as many mills in Europe were unable to build sufficient stocks in advance of the holiday season. In Asia, prices of a number of grades of recovered paper - including mixed, OCC and news & pams - slid several US dollars per tonne lower in early August.
Market analysis: Paper, June 2007 (PDF, 359 kB, 2 pages)
Middle grades attract firmest demand
Having lowered their prices in April, recovered paper buyers reversed this trend last month and thereby created distinct price firmness. Mills in Europe have been keen purchasers as they attempt to build stocks ahead of the summer holiday season. In North America, the Chinese have made a recent and welcome re-entry into the lower grades market.
Market analysis: Paper, May 2007 (PDF, 465 kB, 2 pages)
China plays a wait-and-see game
Mills in Europe have continued to place substantial business for recovered paper as they respond to reasonably strong order books of their own. Fortunately, the volumes of recovered paper entering processors’ facilities have improved over recent weeks. The North American market is in broad balance while Chinese buyers have reined in their international purchases for the moment in anticipation of lower prices.
Market analysis: Paper, April 2007 (PDF, 556 kB, 2 pages)
Prices stumble in North America
The recovered paper market is being heavily influenced by booming Asian demand underpinned by ever-increasing production capacities in the region. European consumers have raised their prices - notably on the lower and middle grades of recovered paper - in a bid to prevent limited available volumes from heading into the hungry Asian market. Across in North America, by contrast, a period of sustained upward price movement has come to an end; prices have fallen and experts believe this weaker trend will persist over the coming weeks.
Market analysis: Paper, March 2007 (PDF, 869 kB, 2 pages)
Prices boosted by surging Asian demand
Continuing strong demand from Asia’s major importing nations helped to convince European mills to raise their prices for the second consecutive month in February. Nevertheless, some European operators are finding difficulty in sourcing all the volume they need. In North America too, vibrant market conditions are being attributed mainly to huge demand from Asia; domestic mills have raised their prices in attempt to boost their competitiveness.
Market analysis: Paper, January-February 2007 (PDF, 568 kB, 2 pages)
Asian buyers fuel strong start to 2007
Although 2006 has given way to 2007, the recovered paper market is still dominated by familiar trends - not least the strength of buying interest from China and other countries in Asia. The robustness of demand from the region - where considerable new capacity has recently come on stream - has prompted a price response from mills in Europe and North America. In the USA, for example, export prices for corrugated have increased by US$ 15 per tonne since the start of the year.
Market analysis: Paper, December 2006 (PDF, 464 kB, 2 pages)
Mills build winter stock buffer
Profit margins are still a source of concern for many of Europe’s recovered paper processors, partly as a result of transportation problems and high energy prices. On a more positive note, demand for recovered paper has remained reasonably strong across most of the major regions of the world - not least because of stock-building ahead of the forthcoming holiday period.
Market analysis: Paper, November 2006 (PDF, 518 kB, 2 pages)
Transport troubles for recovered sector
European mills’ demand for recovered paper has been generally strong over recent weeks. However, merchant processors have seen no improvement in their profit margins given that selling prices have remained relatively stable while costs - notably for transport - have continued to rise. In North America, domestic mill stocks of OCC and ONP have been on the increase, while some improvement in ONP order levels from Asia has also been reported.
Market analysis: Paper, October 2006 (PDF, 509 kB, 2 pages)
Late-summer improvement in supply
In Europe, supply and demand of recovered paper are reasonably well balanced but merchant processors still face problems, not least the US dollar exchange rate and a dearth of transport options. In North America, generation of recovered paper has been reasonably healthy, except in the case of woodfree deinking grades. Asian buyers have remained active, although some have reduced their volumes while they monitor price developments.
Market analysis: Paper, September 2006 (PDF, 522 kB, 2 pages)
Asia gears up for further expansion
The summer holiday period in Europe has continued to take its toll on recovered paper generation. Demand has been steady to firm but, in most instances, prices have not made any significant gains. In North America, there has been a dramatic increase in demand for deinking grades such as pre- and post-consumer white ledger, white manifold and coated book. In Asia, meanwhile, recovered paper buyers are gearing up for an increase in newsprint production capacity towards the end of this year.
Market analysis: Paper, July-August 2006 (PDF, 408 kB, 2 pages)
Holiday-time hiatus in supply
A holiday-related reduction in supply has combined with reasonably healthy demand to create a firm tone within the European recovered paper market. Nevertheless, French mills have dropped their lower-grade prices. The market expectations of North America’s paper recyclers were generally exceeded in June and July as low paper generation ran up against decent demand. Meanwhile, recovered paper shipments to South East Asia are expected to remain largely steady throughout the remainder of 2006.
Market analysis: Paper, June 2006 (PDF, 619 kB, 2 pages)
Demand boost from India
With the holiday period fast approaching, the European recovered paper sector has begun to see a steady reduction in the volumes entering their yards. Market conditions in Asia have been relatively stable, although increasing newsprint capacity in India is expected to lead to improved demand for news & pams later in the year.
Market analysis: Paper, May 2006 (PDF, 336 kB, 2 pages)
Brighter times for North American processors
Many European mills have followed the seasonal norm in looking to establish healthier recovered paper stock levels ahead of the traditional summer downturn in supply. Meanwhile, after many months in the doldrums, the North American paper recycling sector has witnessed a significant improvement in market conditions.
Market analysis: Paper, April 2006 (PDF, 281 kB, 2 pages)
A period of relative calm
In Europe, demand for recovered paper has been influenced in recent weeks by the attempts of some producers to build up stocks ahead of the summer months. A similar inventory-building exercise is taking place in North America, where activity levels have shown some much-needed improvement. Meanwhile, Asia has experienced no major price movements of late.
Market analysis: Paper, March 2006 (PDF, 738 kB, 2 pages)
Copper continues to confound the experts
LME levels have continued to rise over recent weeks, with analysts attributing the increases to, variously, a worldwide shortage of raw materials, speculative activity by investment funds, and the unquenchable thirst for metals among the emerging economies of Asia and Eastern Europe. Indeed, the high prices of copper and zinc have prompted some consumers to consider alternative options.
Market analysis: Paper, January/February 2006 (PDF, 194 kB, 2 pages)
Market swayed by low US prices
Mills in Europe cut lower-grade prices in both December and January despite maintaining their normal buying patterns for the time of year. The export picture, meanwhile, has been dominated by the run-up to the Chinese New Year celebrations and the availability of lower-priced material from the USA. In the USA itself, market conditions have remained rather stagnant.
Market analysis: Paper, December 2005 (PDF, 206 kB, 2 pages)
Stocks sufficient to blunt demand
With a more than sufficient availability of lower grades of recovered paper, European mills introduced minor price reductions in November. Many of North America’s packaging producers are taking market-related or maintenance downtime and are therefore not looking for extra tonnage. Meanwhile, mills in Asia appear to have plenty of stock.
Market analysis: Paper, November 2005 (PDF, 278 kB, 2 pages)
Entire sector afflicted by rising costs
For the European recovered paper industry, export orders have flourished despite pressure from increasing fuel costs. In Asia, two months of healthy demand for the lower grades of recovered paper came to an end in October, while North America is not expecting the current slow trading conditions to improve before Christmas.
Market analysis: Paper, October 2005 (PDF, 284 kB, 2 pages)
Higher costs hurt recycling operations
Following the holiday season, Europe has seen an improvement in the generation of many grades of recovered paper - with the notable exception of some of the higher grades. In North America, margins among many of the paper mills are being squeezed by higher oil prices and by the lack of scope for raising finished product prices. Meanwhile, following a month of decent demand from various countries in the region, lower-grade prices in Asia are expected to remain broadly unchanged in October.
Market analysis: Paper, September 2005 (PDF, 271 kB, 2 pages)
Steady re-start after the holiday season
European consumers have been prepared to pay more for the lower grades of recovered paper although they have faced competition from hungry Asian buyers. The US market appears to have achieved a reasonable balance with mills apparently content to buy insubstantial volumes. Meanwhile, imports into Indonesia, Thailand and Taiwan have been cut in response to high inventories of finished products and high stocks of recovered paper.
Market analysis: Paper, July/August 2005 (PDF, 350 kB, 2 pages)
Summer-time stability
Faced with sluggish economic conditions, European mills have attempted to lower their purchasing prices in June and July but, in general, they are still having to meet levels similar to those prevailing on the wider export market. Meanwhile, some mills in Asia are said to have reduced their recovered paper orders and are running below capacity.
Market analysis: Paper, June 2005 (PDF, 184 kB, 2 pages)
Asian buyers bide their time
Difficult economic conditions in Europe have affected volumes of recovered paper entering merchant processors' yards. In Asia, orders remain difficult to secure despite recent prices falls while North America has witnessed relatively stable conditions, partly as a result of restrained Chinese purchasing.
Market analysis: Paper, May 2005 (PDF, 299 kB, 2 pages)
Trade hit by slow economies and container problems
In Europe, volumes have been affected by slow economic activity while demand in Asia for lower qualities of recovered paper is said to have declined of late. The North American markets are expected to remain quiet during May, with one of the key difficulties being to obtain sufficient containers for export business.
Market analysis: Paper, April 2005 (PDF, 293 kB, 2 pages)
European mills narrow the price gap
European consumers of the lower grades of recovered paper increased prices by as much as € 15 per tonne in March, although buyers in Asia are still paying slightly more for their supplies. Many US mills appear to have reasonable stocks and are declining to compete with significantly higher export prices.
Market analysis: Paper and Pulp, March 2005 (PDF, 289 kB, 2 pages)
Low supply helping to keep prices firm
Against a backdrop of low supply, European mills are demanding normal volumes of the lower grades of recovered paper, while export demand – particularly from China and India – has been good. Given increasing demand and storm-related supply issues in the West, Asian mills are expecting to have to pay more to obtain their raw materials.
Market analysis: Paper, January 2005 (PDF, 277 kB, 2 pages)
Market bolstered by firm demand from Asia
European mills cut lower-grade prices either side of the Christmas break but the recovered paper industry has been buoyed by continuing good demand from Asia, where little movement has been witnessed in bulk grade prices. Meanwhile, the weakness of the US dollar is having a major impact on margins in Asia itself.
Market analysis: Paper, December 2004 (PDF, 314 kB, 2 pages)
Difficult end to 2004 in prospect
Demand in Europe for de-inking grades has recently shown signs of slowing down, while bulk grade prices in South East Asia have been falling during the final months of this year. In North America, it is thought that bad weather conditions might slow collections early next year. Meanwhile, a massive drop in market pulp producer inventories during October strengthened the case for price increases.
Market analysis: Paper, November 2004 (PDF, 427 kB, 2 pages)
Asian demand surmounts obstacles
An air of normality has pervaded the European recovered paper market over recent weeks, with orders coming forward at a reasonable pace and supply still tight in some instances. The Asian market, meanwhile, has been characterised by respectable Asian demand - especially from China - and on-going port congestion in India.
Market analysis: Paper, October 2004 (PDF, 216 kB, 2 pages)
Continuing port problems in India
Despite increases in fuel costs and other overheads, Europe’s recovered paper industry has been witnessing good demand from Asia for various grades of recovered paper. Meanwhile, the cost of shipping material to India is expected to increase considerably due to a lack of containers and extreme port congestion. In North America, domestic prices were much higher than those in many export markets.
Market analysis: Paper, September 2004 (PDF, 124 kB, 2 pages)
Summer slip in South East Asian demand
European merchant processors had been anticipating a fall-off in Chinese demand for lower grades of recovered fibre but, in the event, the impact was softened by decent orders from other overseas markets. Bulk grade prices have fallen slightly in most South East Asian countries while North American exporters report a low level of activity over recent weeks.
Market analysis: Paper, July/August 2004 (PDF, 285 kB, 2 pages)
New import controls dent Chinese demand
Recovered paper prices in Europe have tended slightly lower over recent weeks in response to slow, holiday-affected market conditions. US recovered paper exporters report increased reluctance among Chinese buyers to order substantial volumes. Mills in Asia, meanwhile, have remained conservative in their buying patterns.
Market analysis: Paper, June 2004 (PDF, 277 kB, 2 pages)
Uncertainty surrounds exports to China
Reasonably healthy demand and low stock levels were once again reported by Europe’s recovered paper industry. Order levels have stayed low in Asia while the U.S. market is lacking any true excitement. That said, there is widespread concern about the impact of new import regulations announced by China.
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